Three in four aim for university

An annual survey of youngsters shows an increasing number of them are expecting to enter higher education.

The poll by the Sutton Trust education charity found 39% of 11 to 16yearolds thought they were "very likely" and 34% "fairly likely" to go to university.

The survey found that fewer young people were being put off from applying by fears over debt.

But the latest figure for young people actually entering higher education is 40% lower than the previous year.

Aspiration

The figures from the Sutton Trust, from an Ipsos/Mori poll of more than 2,300 pupils aged 11 to 16, show a rising level of expectation among youngsters that they will go to university.

Last year, the percentage of pupils who thought they were very or fairly likely to enter higher education was 71%.

The percentage deterred by worries about student debt fell from 20% last year to 13% this year.

But the chairman of the Sutton Trust, Sir Peter Lampl, highlights the gap between the aspirations of young people and the reality in terms of the much smaller numbers who actually go.

"While it is encouraging that three quarters of young people aspire to university, less than half that number currently end up in higher education and those from poorer families are the least likely to progress," said Sir Peter.

Last month the government published figures showing the trends in entering higher education and they show little change since the beginning of the century, despite repeated government calls to widen participation.

Slow progress

This "higher education initial participation rate" is the statistic used by the government to measure progress towards the target to reach a 50% participation rate among those aged 18 to 30 by 2010.

The provisional figures for 200607 show a 40% participation rate for students from England entering UK higher education institutions down from 42% the previous year.

The longerterm trend shows little change in the rate it was standing at 40% in 200001 and how much will have to change to meet the target.

For young men the percentage has dipped, down to 35% from 37% last year. The figure stood at 37% in 19992000.

When this figure is broken down to the 17 to 20yearold group, only 28% of young men are in university, down from 30% in 19992000.

For young women there has also been a fall, although from a higher level down to 45% from 48% last year, though this represents a long term increase, up from 41% in 19992000.

Taking fulltime students as a separate group, the overall figure for young people going into higher education is 34%, the same as in 19992000.

The government says the downturn in 200607 is a temporary dip reflecting uncertainty around the introduction of tuition fees.

Ministers point to a rise in this year’s university application figures, with the latest monthly figures up 7.8% year on year (or 5.5% without nursing and midwifery foundation courses which have been included for the first time).